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 A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a model evaluation technique that can be used to understand how different classification thresholds will impact the model’s performance. A ROC curve plots the true positive rate (TPR) against the false positive rate (FPR) for various values of the classification threshold. The TPR, also known as sensitivity or recall, is the proportion of positive instances that are correctly classified as positive. The FPR, also known as the fall-out, is the proportion of negative instances that are incorrectly classified as positive. A ROC curve can show the trade-off between the TPR and the FPR for different thresholds, and help the Machine Learning Specialist to select the optimal threshold that maximizes the TPR and minimizes the FPR. A ROC curve can also be used to compare the performance of different models by calculating the area under the curve (AUC), which is a measure of how well the model can distinguish between the positive and negative classes. A higher AUC indicates a better model

To capture word context and sequential QA information, the embedding vectors need to consider both the order and the meaning of the words in the text.

Option B, Amazon SageMaker BlazingText algorithm in Skip-gram mode, is a valid option because it can learn word embeddings that capture the semantic similarity and syntactic relations between words based on their co-occurrence in a window of words. Skip-gram mode can also handle rare words better than continuous bag-of-words (CBOW) mode1.

Option E, combination of the Amazon SageMaker BlazingText algorithm in Batch Skip-gram mode with a custom recurrent neural network (RNN), is another valid option because it can leverage the advantages of Skip-gram mode and also use an RNN to model the sequential nature of the text. An RNN can capture the temporal dependencies and long-term dependencies between words, which are important for QA tasks2.

Option A, Amazon SageMaker seq2seq algorithm, is not a valid option because it is designed for sequence-to-sequence tasks such as machine translation, summarization, or chatbots. It does not produce embedding vectors for text series, but rather generates an output sequence given an input sequence3.

Option C, Amazon SageMaker Object2Vec algorithm, is not a valid option because it is designed for learning embeddings for pairs of objects, such as text-image, text-text, or image-image. It does not produce embedding vectors for text series, but rather learns a similarity function between pairs of objects4.

Option D, Amazon SageMaker BlazingText algorithm in continuous bag-of-words (CBOW) mode, is not a valid option because it does not capture word context as well as Skip-gram mode. CBOW mode predicts a word given its surrounding words, while Skip-gram mode predicts the surrounding words given a word. CBOW mode is faster and more suitable for frequent words, but Skip-gram mode can learn more meaningful embeddings for rare words1.

1: Amazon SageMaker BlazingText

2: Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs)

3: Amazon SageMaker Seq2Seq

4: Amazon SageMaker Object2Vec

A confusion matrix is a matrix that summarizes the performance of a machine learning model on a set of test data. It displays the number of true positives (TP), true negatives (TN), false positives (FP), and false negatives (FN) produced by the model on the test data1. For multi-class classification, the matrix shape will be equal to the number of classes i.e for n classes it will be nXn1. The diagonal values represent the number of correct predictions for each class, and the off-diagonal values represent the number of incorrect predictions for each class1.

The BlazingText algorithm is a proprietary machine learning algorithm for forecasting time series using causal convolutional neural networks (CNNs). BlazingText works best with large datasets containing hundreds of time series. It accepts item metadata, and is the only Forecast algorithm that accepts related time series data without future values2.

From the confusion matrices for the training and test sets, we can observe the following:

The model has a high accuracy on the training set, as most of the diagonal values are high and the off-diagonal values are low. This means that the model is able to learn the patterns and features of the training data well.

However, the model has a lower accuracy on the test set, as some of the diagonal values are lower and some of the off-diagonal values are higher. This means that the model is not able to generalize well to the unseen data and makes more errors.

The model has a particularly high error rate for classes B and E on the test set, as the values of M_22 and M_55 are much lower than the values of M_12, M_21, M_15, M_25, M_51, and M_52. This means that the model is confusing classes B and E with other classes more often than it should.

The model has a relatively low error rate for classes A, C, and D on the test set, as the values of M_11, M_33, and M_44 are high and the values of M_13, M_14, M_23, M_24, M_31, M_32, M_34, M_41, M_42, and M_43 are low. This means that the model is able to distinguish classes A, C, and D from other classes well.

These results indicate that the model is overfitting for classes B and E, meaning that it is memorizing the specific features of these classes in the training data, but failing to capture the general features that are applicable to the test data. Overfitting is a common problem in machine learning, where the model performs well on the training data, but poorly on the test data3. Some possible causes of overfitting are:

The model is too complex or has too many parameters for the given data. This makes the model flexible enough to fit the noise and outliers in the training data, but reduces its ability to generalize to new data.

The data is too small or not representative of the population. This makes the model learn from a limited or biased sample of data, but fails to capture the variability and diversity of the population.

The data is imbalanced or skewed. This makes the model learn from a disproportionate or uneven distribution of data, but fails to account for the minority or rare classes.

Some possible solutions to prevent or reduce overfitting are:

Simplify the model or use regularization techniques. This reduces the complexity or the number of parameters of the model, and prevents it from fitting the noise and outliers in the data. Regularization techniques, such as L1 or L2 regularization, add a penalty term to the loss function of the model, which shrinks the weights of the model and reduces overfitting3.

Increase the size or diversity of the data. This provides more information and examples for the model to learn from, and increases its ability to generalize to new data. Data augmentation techniques, such as rotation, flipping, cropping, or noise addition, can generate new data from the existing data by applying some transformations3.

Balance or resample the data. This adjusts the distribution or the frequency of the data, and ensures that the model learns from all classes equally. Resampling techniques, such as oversampling or undersampling, can create a balanced dataset by increasing or decreasing the number of samples for each class3.

Confusion Matrix in Machine Learning - GeeksforGeeks

BlazingText algorithm - Amazon SageMaker

Overfitting and Underfitting in Machine Learning - GeeksforGeeks

The solution that will meet the requirements with the least amount of customization to transform and store the ingested data is to use Amazon Kinesis Data Analytics to read and aggregate the data hourly, transform the data and store it in Amazon S3 by using Amazon Kinesis Data Firehose. This solution leverages the built-in features of Kinesis Data Analytics to perform SQL queries on streaming data and generate hourly summaries. Kinesis Data Analytics can also output the transformed data to Kinesis Data Firehose, which can then deliver the data to S3 in a specified format and partitioning scheme. This solution does not require any custom code or additional infrastructure to process the data. The other solutions either require more customization (such as using Lambda or EMR) or do not meet the requirement of aggregating the data hourly (such as using Lambda to read the data from Kinesis Data Streams). References:

1: Boosting Resiliency with an ML-based Telemetry Analytics Architecture | AWS Architecture Blog

2: AWS Cloud Data Ingestion Patterns and Practices

3: IoT ingestion and Machine Learning analytics pipeline with AWS IoT …

4: AWS IoT Data Ingestion Simplified 101: The Complete Guide - Hevo Data