8010 Exam Dumps : Operational Risk Manager (ORM) Exam

All the factors listed above contributed to systemic failure. Liquidity risk was not on the radar of regulators, and was a second priority for risk managers, and most of the focus was oncapital adequacy as liquidity was thought to be an unlikely problem. Liquidity, regardless of capital adequacy, was the primary cause of failure of a number of institutions during the crisis.

Similarly, stress tests proved to be much milder than the shocks that were actually experienced, and the strategy of 'originate and distribute' implied that the mortgage and other debt originators had no interest in any due diligence as they intended to package and sell the debt to other investors.

Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

Statement I is correct as credit VaR calculations often use a one year time horizon. This is primarily because the cycle in respect of credit related activities, such as loan loss reviews, accounting cycles for borrowers etc last a year.

Statement II is false. There are two ways in which loss assessments in respect of credit risk can be made: default mode, where losses are considered only in respect of default, and no losses are recognized in respect of the deterioration of the creditworthiness of the borrower (which is often expressed through a credit rating transition matrix); and the mark-to-market mode, where losses due to both defaults and credit quality are considered. The default mode is used for the loan book where the institution has lentmoneys and generally intends to hold the loan on its books till maturity. The mark to market mode is used for traded securities which are not held to maturity, or are held only for trading.

Statement III is correct. The confidence interval, or the quintile of losses used for maintaining credit ratings tends to be very high as the possibility of the institution's default needs to be remote.

Statement IV is correct too, for the reasons explained earlier.

Marginal probabilities of default are the probabilities for default for a given period, conditional on survival till the end of the previous period. Cumulative probabilities of default are probabilities of default by a point in time, regardless of when the default occurs. If the marginal probabilities of default for periods 1, 2... n are p1, p2...pn, then cumulative probability of default can be calculated as Cn = 1 - (1 - p1)(1-p2)...(1-pn). For this question, we can calculate the probability of default for year 3 as =1 - (1-2%)*(1-3%)*(1-4%) = 8.74%