8010 Exam Dumps : Operational Risk Manager (ORM) Exam

The easiest way to answer this question is to ignore the joint probability of default as thatis irrelevant to expected losses. The joint probability of default impacts the volatility of the losses, but not the expected amount. One way to think about it is to think of asset portfolios, where diversification reduces risk (ie standard deviation) butthe expected returns are nothing but the average of the expected returns in the portfolio. Just as the expected returns of the portfolio are not affected by the volatility or correlations (these affect standard deviation), in the same way the joint probability of default does not affect the expected losses. Therefore the expected losses for this portfolio are simply $1m x 10% + $1m x 15% = $250,000.

This can also be seen from the lens of a joint probability distribution as follows:

There are four possibilities for this portfolio:

- Only loan A defaults: loss of $1m: 9% probability

- Only loan B defaults: loss of $1m: 14% probability

- Both loan A and B default: loss of $2m: 1% probability

- Neither A nor B default: loss of $0m: 76% probability

Therefore the expected losses on the portfolio are ($1m x 9%) + ($1m x 14%) + ($2m x 1%) + ($0m x 76%) = $250,000.

(Notes: How is the above table calculated? The totals (10%, 90%, 15% and 85%) are filled in first. The top left cell (both A & B default) is given as 1%. We can now calculate the rest of the cells as the totals are known.)

The correct answer is Choice 'c'. The following is a brief description of the major approaches available to model credit risk, and the analysis that underlies them:

1. CreditMetrics: based on the credit migration framework. Considers the probability of migration to other credit ratings and the impact of such migrations on portfolio value.

2. CreditPortfolio View: similar to CreditMetrics, but adds the impact of the business cycle to the evaluation.

3. The contingent claims approach: uses option theory by considering a debt as a put option on the assets of the firm.

4. KMV's EDF (expected default frequency) based approach: relies on EDFs and distance to default as a measure of credit risk.

5. CreditRisk+: Also called the 'actuarial approach', considers default as a binary event that either happens or does not happen. This approach does not consider the loss of value from deterioration in credit quality (unless the deterioration implies default).

Statement I is correct. Retail Risk Based Pricing (RRBP) involves the use of borrower specific data (such as FICO scores, average balances etc) to arrive at credit decisions. These 'retail' credit decisions may include decisions on whether to grant a line of credit, a mortgage, issue a credit card, or any of the various other retail activities abank may be dealing with. At the same time, this data can also be used to price the product, in addition to providing a yes or no credit decision so that risky borrowers are charged more than less risky borrowers.

Statement II is not correct, because an integrated Risk Information Management Environment includes three elements - people, processes and technology (and not just people and processes).

Statement III is correct. An LDM is a blue print of an organization's data, and describes the relationships between the various data elements.

Statement IV is not correct because reference data and metadata are not the same thing. Reference data refers to relatively static data, such as customer name (while actual transactions may not be so static). Metadata refers to data about data, and is stored in a data dictionary.

Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer and the rest are incorrect.