8008 Exam Dumps : PRM Certification - Exam III: Risk Management Frameworks, Operational Risk, Credit Risk, Counterparty Risk, Market Risk, ALM, FTP - 2015 Edition

The correct answer is Choice 'b'. The following is a brief description of the major approaches available to model credit risk, and the analysis that underlies them:

1. CreditMetrics: based on the credit migration framework. Considers the probability of migration to other credit ratings and the impact of such migrations on portfolio value.

2. CreditPortfolio View: similar to CreditMetrics, but adds the impact of the business cycle to the evaluation.

3. The contingent claims approach: uses option theory by considering a debt as a put option on the assets of the firm.

4. KMV's EDF (expected default frequency) based approach: relies on EDFs and distance to default as a measure of credit risk.

5. CreditRisk+: Also called the 'actuarial approach', considers default as a binary event that either happens or does not happen. This approach does not consider the loss of value from deterioration in credit quality (unless the deterioration implies default).

The credit spread is equal to the default rate times the loss given default, or stated another way, default rate times (1 - recovery rate). It is not equal to the default rate times the recovery rate. Therefore statement I is not correct.

When ratings are upgraded by rating agencies, the spread contracts and not widen. Therefore statement II is not correct.

Both recovery rates and probabilities of default are related to the business cycle, and they move in opposite directions. Economic recessions witness an increase in the default rate and a decrease in the recovery rate, and economic expansions result in a decrease in the default rate and an increase in the recovery rates when default does happen. Therefore statement III is correct.

Bond spreads incorporate both the risk of default, but also considerations of liquidity in the case of corporate bonds. Hence statement IV is correct.

As part of a reverse stress test, a firm has to identify and assess the scenarios most likely to cause it to fail, or in other words using the language used by the FSA in the UK, for its current business plan to become unviable. A firm's business plan should be considered to become unviable at the point that crystallizing risks cause the market to lose confidence it it, with the consequence that counterparties and other stakeholders are unwilling to transact with it or provide capital to the firm and, where releant, that existing counterparties may seek to terminate their contracts. Recent experience suggests that this point is reached well before a firm's regulatory capital is exhausted.

Large known losses, or negative EBITDA (earnings before interest , tax, depreciation and amortization) may be indicators or contribute to the loss of confidence, but do not of themselves make the current business plan unviable. Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.